Posted on Wed, Aug. 27, 2008
New-home sales up 2.4% in U.S., still lag '07
The Northeast fared the best.
By Alan J. Heavens
Inquirer Real Estate Writer
New-home sales in July increased 2.4 percent nationally over June, yet remained 35.3 percent below July 2007 levels, the Commerce Department reported yesterday.
Two separate measures also released yesterday showed continued erosion in home prices in the second quarter.
"Hardly any new homes are being sold, but at least the sales pace seems to be hitting a bottom," said Joel L. Naroff, chief economist at Commerce Bancorp Inc., of Cherry Hill.
The Northeast performed better than any other region in July, with a month-to-month sales increase of 38.9 percent and an annual rise of 4.2 percent.
The only other region to show a monthly increase was the West, where foreclosures competed with new homes, forcing builders to slash prices to move inventory.
"A rise in new-home sales in July looks like good news on the surface - after all, most analysts had expected a decline," said Nigel Gault, chief economist for Global Insight Inc., of Lexington, Mass.
July's increase resulted from a 5.1 percent downward revision of June's original numbers - so the level of July sales was worse than expected, he said.
The steep decline of new homes for sale from 10.7 months' supply in June to 10.1 months in July was seen as a sign that builders had gotten the message and were bringing fewer homes to market.
"This is . . . a necessary adjustment to bring the market back into balance," Gault said.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy. com in West Chester, said that although the end of the housing downturn would be "long and painful," it has begun.
"It will take another year - perhaps two - to work off all that inventory, but at least it is no longer rising," Zandi said. "The housing crash is not over, but the bottom is finally coming into view."
Increased foreclosure sales appeared to have an effect on home prices during the second quarter of the year. Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which covers all nine census divisions, showed a record 15.4 percent drop in the quarter, compared with the same period in 2007.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported a 4.8 percent drop for the nine divisions for the second quarter year-over-year.
Economists attribute the difference in Case-Shiller and Housing Enterprise Oversight measurements to the fact that Case-Shiller's national index is weighted to more expensive markets, while the federal agency's is weighted to lower-cost ones, making Case-Shiller price declines greater.
Case-Shiller's regular June index, which covers 20 metropolitan areas, but not Philadelphia, showed prices 15.9 percent lower than in June 2007.
"The good news is that while year-on-year price declines continue to set records, the steepest price declines are behind us, and some markets have moved up over the past few months," Gault said.
For the financial sector to recover and the economy to revitalize, Naroff said, the market has to stabilize and home prices have to stop falling.
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Contact real estate writer Alan J. Heavens at 215-854-2472 or aheavens@phillynews.com.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Area Fair Schedule
I don't know about your family but my family's fall traditions include visiting many of the fairs that take place across Massachusetts in the Fall. They are a warm welcome by summer's end and mark the beginning of the fall season. Now that I have children of my own it is even more important for me to carry on the tradition and fun that these place have to offer.
Below is a list of some of our favorite fairs to attend and all are in good travel distance to the general central MA area.
So pack the kids up or find the inner kid in you this Fall!
Michelle
The Spencer Fair in Spencer
LABOR DAY WEEKEND Aug. 29th - Sept. 1st 2008
The 3 County Fair in North Hampton
LABOR DAY WEEKEND Aug. 29th - Sept. 1st 2008
The Woodstock Fair in Woodstock CT
LABOR DAY WEEKEND Aug. 29th - Sept. 1st 2008
The Big E in West Springfield
2008 Dates: September 12-28
Hillview Estates in Grafton
Rare Hillview Estates re-sale townhome featuring stainless steel, granite kitchen. Hardwood floors throughout 1st floor. Cozy corner gas fireplace. Wainscoting & crowns. Bedroom on 2nd floor w/private bath perfect for guests. Stunning master suite w/skylight, his & hers walkin closets. Large private bath w/whirlpool tub & 4'shower. Basement w/high ceilings, roughed for bath, calls to be finished!Sunny, spacious, central air, privacy behind unit.Convenient to all including Highfields Golf Course! Offered exclusively by Sandi and Michelle at RE/MAX Executive Realty for $289,900
Call or e-mail Sandi or Michelle for a showing. (508) 839-9219 or sales@sandiandmichelle.com
Call or e-mail Sandi or Michelle for a showing. (508) 839-9219 or sales@sandiandmichelle.com
View all interior photos at www.SandiandMichelle.com
An End in Sight?
From Bankers and Tradesmen
End To U.S. Housing Market Meltdown In Sight?
August 18, 2008
The United States is still suffering the worst housing market downturn since the Great Depression, but a slew of factors suggest the worst may soon be over.
Among the strongest signs that the hard-hit sector could be recovering, home prices in many regions of the country are now falling at a slower rate, after two years of declines, and in some areas prices have actually risen.
The battered housing market is critical to the U.S. economy, with impact from the construction industry to the sale of appliances and furniture. After hurting growth in recent quarters, an improvement in the housing market could portend a turnaround for the world’s largest economy, which many say is either on the brink of a recession or already in one.
“Anybody who tells you they know when the housing market will bottom is delusional, but anybody who denies there are some positives out there that could make the housing market bottom fairly soon is equally delusional,” said Karl Case, the co-developer of a widely watched gauge of the housing industry and an economics professor at Wellesley College in Massachusetts.
The Standard and Poor’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, which Case co-developed, has shown a slowdown in the fall-off in home prices in recent months.
Other data also show signs of a bottom in house prices.
New housing starts fell to 975,000 in April from a peak of 2.27 million in January 2006. In the past 35 years, in the three other times that starts fell from more than 2 million to under 1 million, housing market activity rebounded within a quarter, Case said.
Residential construction as a percentage of real gross domestic product, however, is below the historical bottom, Case noted.
Case, whose research has focused on real estate markets and prices for over 20 years, said certain regions of the country now look similar to when they bottomed in past down cycles.
A bottom in the battered U.S. housing market may emerge first in California, one of the states hardest hit by foreclosures and where home prices are dropping to a point where the cost of a mortgage and taxes equals rent.
“The key is to try is to get some stability in the price of homes, which appears to be happening in California,” said veteran banking analyst Charles Peabody, of Portales Partners in New York.
And as goes California, the most populous state, so goes the rest of the United States, according to Peabody.
“California is the linchpin and so if the region flattens, that changes everything,” Case said.
Among the signs of a turn in the housing market, on a year-over-year basis, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index was down 15.8 percent in May, but on a month-over-month basis home prices only fell 0.9 percent, the smallest monthly drop since September 2007.
And while on a year-over-year basis all 20 metro areas surveyed reported a decline in home prices, on a month-over-month basis home prices actually increased in eight metro areas in April and in seven metro areas in May. In March, only two metro areas showed prices rising month-over-month. (Reuters)
End To U.S. Housing Market Meltdown In Sight?
August 18, 2008
The United States is still suffering the worst housing market downturn since the Great Depression, but a slew of factors suggest the worst may soon be over.
Among the strongest signs that the hard-hit sector could be recovering, home prices in many regions of the country are now falling at a slower rate, after two years of declines, and in some areas prices have actually risen.
The battered housing market is critical to the U.S. economy, with impact from the construction industry to the sale of appliances and furniture. After hurting growth in recent quarters, an improvement in the housing market could portend a turnaround for the world’s largest economy, which many say is either on the brink of a recession or already in one.
“Anybody who tells you they know when the housing market will bottom is delusional, but anybody who denies there are some positives out there that could make the housing market bottom fairly soon is equally delusional,” said Karl Case, the co-developer of a widely watched gauge of the housing industry and an economics professor at Wellesley College in Massachusetts.
The Standard and Poor’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, which Case co-developed, has shown a slowdown in the fall-off in home prices in recent months.
Other data also show signs of a bottom in house prices.
New housing starts fell to 975,000 in April from a peak of 2.27 million in January 2006. In the past 35 years, in the three other times that starts fell from more than 2 million to under 1 million, housing market activity rebounded within a quarter, Case said.
Residential construction as a percentage of real gross domestic product, however, is below the historical bottom, Case noted.
Case, whose research has focused on real estate markets and prices for over 20 years, said certain regions of the country now look similar to when they bottomed in past down cycles.
A bottom in the battered U.S. housing market may emerge first in California, one of the states hardest hit by foreclosures and where home prices are dropping to a point where the cost of a mortgage and taxes equals rent.
“The key is to try is to get some stability in the price of homes, which appears to be happening in California,” said veteran banking analyst Charles Peabody, of Portales Partners in New York.
And as goes California, the most populous state, so goes the rest of the United States, according to Peabody.
“California is the linchpin and so if the region flattens, that changes everything,” Case said.
Among the signs of a turn in the housing market, on a year-over-year basis, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index was down 15.8 percent in May, but on a month-over-month basis home prices only fell 0.9 percent, the smallest monthly drop since September 2007.
And while on a year-over-year basis all 20 metro areas surveyed reported a decline in home prices, on a month-over-month basis home prices actually increased in eight metro areas in April and in seven metro areas in May. In March, only two metro areas showed prices rising month-over-month. (Reuters)
Something New
Hi everyone and welcome to our new (and first) blog. We will try to provide subjects that we hope will be of interest to you. A lot will be Real Estate related (that’s what we do, in case you didn’t know….) but also what we experience on a day to day basis. Hence, “On the Road with Sandi and Michelle”!
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